000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 93W INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E OF AXIS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 7N78W TO 06N89W TO 10N98W TO 
10N108W TO 05N120W TO 04N130W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 102W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 102W TO 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N140W TO 
00N124W WITH SHARP DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR 09N133W CAUSING STRONG 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.  JET CORE 55 KT ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF 
TRPCL ITCZ MOISTURE DEBRIS NE BUT WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT 
ON SURFACE WEATHER EXCEPT ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION OVER ITCZ W 
OF 132W...AND THAT IS ALREADY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND 
COVERAGE.  BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AT 15N118W 
MAINTAINS STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO ITS W TO AFOREMENTIONED 
TROUGH.  UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 19N110W COMBINES WITH 
RIDGE TO PRODUCE STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RIGHT JUST N OF 
ITCZ.  WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N117W TO 07N118W MOVING AWAY 
FROM FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT LIKELY LOSE INTENSITY AND 
DISSIPATE WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS.  

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N103W TO 08N105W MOVING UNDER 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN NEXT 24-36 
HRS ALTHOUGH NO TRPCL ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
 
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB JUST N OF 
AREA PRODUCING FRESH N BREEZE ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST AND NE 
TRADES W OF 135W EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 1023 MB DIMINISHING WINDS 
OVER BOTH AREAS.  LINGERING 8 FT N SWELLS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN 
LESS THAN 24 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES