000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 92W INTO SERN MEXICO. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF AXIS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 7N77W TO 05N909W TO 11N100W TO 
10N110W TO 10N114W TO 06N120W TO 05N128W TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS E OF 99W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM OF AXIS FROM 101W TO 
119W AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N140W TO 
00N125W WITH SHARP DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR 09N134W CAUSING STRONG 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.  JET CORE 55 KT ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF 
TRPCL ITCZ MOISTURE DEBRIS NE BUT WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT 
ON SURFACE WEATHER EXCEPT ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION OVER ITCZ W 
OF 132W.  BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AT 14N117W 
MAINTAINS STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO ITS W TO AFOREMENTIONED 
TROUGH.  UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 19N111W COMBINES WITH 
RIDGE TO PRODUCE STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RIGHT JUST N OF 
ITCZ.  WEAK LOW PRES 1012 MB CENTER AT 10N117W EMBEDDED IN 
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N115W TO 05N118W BOTH MOVING AWAY FROM 
FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT LIKELY LOSE INTENSITY AND DISSIPATE 
WITHIN NEXT 24-30 HRS.  

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N102W TO 07N105W MOVING UNDER 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN NEXT 24-36 
HRS ALTHOUGH NO TRPCL ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
 
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB JUST N OF 
AREA PRODUCING FRESH N BREEZE ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST AND NE 
TRADES W OF 135W EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 1023 MB DIMINISHING WINDS 
OVER BOTH AREAS.  LINGERING 8-9 FT N SWELLS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 
WITHIN 24-30 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES