000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG 07N78W TO 10N93W TO 10N109W 
TO 06N130W TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 
NM OF AXIS E OF 113W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WRN BORDER OF REGION FROM 32N138W TO 
24N140W ADVECTING TRPCL MOISTURE INTO NW CORNER UNDER WEAK 45 KT 
JET CORE.  MOISTURE N OF 21N W OF 130W AVAILABLE TO STATIONARY 
FRONT WELL N OF BASIN BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE E 
PAC.  WIND FLOW TAKE ANTICYCLONIC TURN AS LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER 
NW MEXICO MAINTAINS STRONG HOLD OVER REGION N OF 13N E OF 129W.  
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPS AIR MASS FAIRLY DRY UNDER 
RIDGE UMBRELLA.  MOISTURE ALSO REACHING S OF 10N W OF 132W 
HELPING ITCZ WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN REGION WHERE UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE SITS ON TOP OF SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 110W.

CARIBBEAN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS ITS FLOW OVER E PAC 
WITH SECOND MINOR ANTICYCLONE AT 10N98W BUT UNABLE TO ENHANCE 
MUCH CONVECTION WITH ITS UPPER DIFFLUENCE AS WATER SEEMS TO BE 
LACKING.  SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 97W MOVING W 15 KT MIGHT BE ABLE 
TO USE DIVERGENT FLOW WITHIN NEXT 24-30 HRS.  OTHERWISE MOISTURE 
JUST BLOWS AWAY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTO WRN CARIBBEAN.  

AT THE SURFACE...TRPCL WAVE ENTERS E PAC ALONG 85W DRAGGING LOTS 
OF MOISTURE BEHIND IT AND MOVING INTO ZONE FAVORABLE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT 36 HRS.  

HIGH PRES RIDGE WELL N OF AREA N OF 18N W OF 115W. TIGHT 
GRADIENT WITH LOW PRES 1004 MB SITTING OVER WRN TEXAS FORCING N 
WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 30N-32N.  LINGERING N 
SWELLS SEEP INTO E PAC N OF 28N W OF 125W.  LARGE LONG PERIOD 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS SNEAK INTO E PAC S OF 10N W OF 95W.

$$
WALLY BARNES