000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160346
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG 09N84W TO 04N115W TO  
08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF 
AXIS E OF 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N140W DIGGING SE TO 07N118W.  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S OF 15N W OF TROUGH DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE 
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ON SURFACE AS AIR MASS REMAINS TOO 
DRY FOR DEVELOPMENT.  MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS E OF TROUGH 
N OF 21N AND THROUGH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL 
MEXICO KEEPING DRY AIR MASS OVER REGION N OF 11N FROM COAST TO 
120W. 

DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE TO CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 15N103W.  SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N109W TO 10N107W HAS 
MINOR DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS RIGHT UNDER AREA OF 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS SYSTEM 
DRIFTS INTO AN MORE ADVERSE UPPER ENVIRONMENT.

ANTICYCLONE ALOFT OVER WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS RIDGE W INTO E PAC 
PROMPTS GOOD OUTFLOW OF ITCZ CONVECTION INTO CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA.  ITCZ VERY ACTIVE E OF 112W WHERE WARM MOIST 
TRPCL AIR MASS FLOWS INTO E PAC...BUT SUBSIDENCE UNDER TROUGH 
KEEPS AIR TOO DRY W OF 112W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB WELL N OF 
AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND AND COVER AREA N OF 18N W OF 122W.  TIGHT 
GRADIENT PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N E OF 121W BUT ONLY 
FRESH BREEZE ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.  SEAS TO 9 FT.  SWELL 
PRODUCED WELL N OF AREA ENCROACH INTO E PAC N OF 27N W OF 122W.

$$
WALLY BARNES