000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG 06N78W TO 08N94W TO 06N107W 
TO 04N115W TO 05N125W TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 82W-88W AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 98W-110W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 91W-98W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 27N145W MAINTAINS AIR FLOW 
WITH TROUGH FROM 32N138W DIGGING SE TO 02N118W.  ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW S OF 15N W OF TROUGH DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANY 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ON SURFACE.  MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS 
E OF TROUGH N OF 18N AND THROUGH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED OVER 
N CENTRAL MEXICO KEEPING DRY AIR MASS OVER REGION N OF 10N FROM 
100W-120W. 

DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE TO CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 16N102W.  SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N107W TO 10N103W HAS 
MINOR DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS RIGHT UNDER AREA OF 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS SYSTEM 
DRIFTS INTO AN MORE ADVERSE UPPER ENVIRONMENT.

ANTICYCLONE ALOFT OVER WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS RIDGE W INTO E PAC 
PROMPTS GOOD OUTFLOW OF ITCZ CONVECTION INTO CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA.  ITCZ VERY ACTIVE E OF 112W WHERE WARM MOIST 
TRPCL AIR MASS FLOWS INTO E PAC...BUT SUBSIDENCE UNDER TROUGH 
KEEPS AIR TOO DRY W OF 112W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB WELL N OF 
AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND AND COVER AREA N OF 18N W OF 122W.  TIGHT 
GRADIENT FORCES FRESH BREEZE ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST BUT SEAS 
REMAIN UNDER 8 FT.  SWELL PRODUCED WELL N OF AREA ENCROACH INTO 
E PAC N OF 27N W OF 122W.

$$
WALLY BARNES