000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W 
6N85W 8N97W 6N108W 6N121W 8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 82W-87W...AND WITHIN 
60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-109W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
92W-98W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER FAR
NRN MEXICO NEAR 29N105W...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 27N112W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SECOND 
ANTICYCLONE NWWD TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N118W. TO OVER 
NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND FURTHER NW TO OVER THE UNITED STATES W 
COAST. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF 
THIS AREA...EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 3N-13N AND E OF 
110W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N99W NWD TO AN
ELONGATED MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST INLAND THE 
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF 13N93W. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE 
OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THIS TROUGH PRESENTLY 
SEPARATES TWO AREAS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...ONE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NRN MEXICO AND THE 
OTHER ONE EXTENDING ALONG THE ISTHMUS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A 
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT EXTENDS FROM 10N103W TO 
4N108W. IT IS UNDER AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW LOCATED TO THE SW 
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND W OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

DUE TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND MID/UPPER RIDGE...THE UPPER FLOW
IS E-SE FROM 7N-12N THEN BECOMES SE NE OF 12N TO ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS FLOW IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL ITCZ MOISTURE NEWD
TO E OF THE AREA AND INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND 
ALONG THE COAST OF NRN COSTA RICA AS WELL AS INLAND NRN COSTA 
RICA.

W OF 120W...  
THE MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N132W...AND
STRETCHES THROUGH 25N129W TO 18N126W AND TO 10N119.5W. A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN IS OBSERVED W OF THE TROUGH. N OF 13N THE FLOW
IS SW TO W...WHILE S OF 13N THE FLOW PATTERN IS RATHER ZONAL
BECOMING MORE BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC TO THE S OF 7N. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH N OF 18N. THE TROUGH 
IS FORECAST TO LIFT N AND GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 
48-72 HOURS. LATER NEXT WEEK A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CLIP THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA AT 32N136W
...AND REACHES TO 23N124W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA THE AREA 
N OF 18N AND W OF 122W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
WWD ARE PRESENT N OF 14N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W AROUND 
10 KT IS ALONG 15N121W 9N122W...AND IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE
LOW  LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MOTION IN ITS VICINITY. A QUIKSCAT PASS
FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED A SUBTLE WIND NE-SE SHIFT WITH THIS 
TROUGH.

$$
AGUIRRE