000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141618
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W 
6N85W 8N97W 5N110W 6N122W 6N132W 5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-106W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 94W-99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-121W AND 126W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER 
NRN MEXICO NEAR 28N104W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NWWD FROM THE 
ANTICYCLONE TO OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO OVER NRN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...AND FURTHER NW TO OVER THE UNITED STATES W COAST. A 
SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING NW 25 KT IS JUST W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 27N115W BUT IS QUICKLY LOSING ITS 
IDENTITY. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF 
THIS AREA...EXPECT ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 90W-110W FROM 
3N-11N AND ALSO E OF 82W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
14N98W NWD TO A MID/UPPER CYCLONE DRIFTING SW OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE 22N95W. THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW 
ACROSS MEXICO AND POSSIBLY MOVE TO NEAR 15N105W BY MON MORNING. 
THE TROUGH SEPARATES TWO AREAS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...ONE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NRN MEXICO 
AND THE OTHER ONE EXTENDING ALONG THE ISTHMUS OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT EXTENDS FROM 
11N102W TO 4N104W IS UNDER AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT EXISTS 
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST AREA OF MID/UPPER RIDGING 
COVERING THE AREA TO THE N OF 7N AND W OF 100W. 
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOW WINDS OF MODERATE TO STRONG SPEEDS 
FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 100W-110W. THESE WINDS ARE SPREADING UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 100W-106W.

W OF 120W...  
THE MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N137W...AND 
CONTINUES THROUGH 25N132W TO 18N126W TO AND TO 9N121W. TO THE SW 
OF THE TROUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER ZONAL S TO NEAR 
14N...THEN BECOMES BROAD ANTICYCLONIC S OF FROM THERE. MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH N OF 15N. THIS TROUGH 
IS FORECAST TO LIFT N AND GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 
48-72 HOURS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH 
THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXETNDS SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 
32N136W...AND EXTENDS SE TO 23N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA 
THE AREA N OF 19N AND W OF 125W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WWD ARE SEEN N OF 15N. A SMALL AREA
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM
11N117W TO 14N117W AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W AROUND 10 KT IS ALONG 10N127W
4N128W...AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

EXPECT CROSS-EQUATORIAL SLY SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FT S OF 5N BETWEEN
89W AND 110W DURING AT LEAST THEN NEXT 48 HOURS.

PAPAGAYO NE WINDS OF 20 KT SHOULD LAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
 
$$
AGUIRRE