000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W 
6N100W 6N110W 7N120W 10N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W-95W
...BETWEEN 99W-101W AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 111W-117W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
131W-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER NRN MEXICO NEAR
27N104W...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM
THE ANTICYCLONE THROUGH 28N118W TO NW OF THE AREA NEAR 32N118W.
A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING NW ABOUT 15 KT IS NEAR
23N112W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...EXPECT NEAR THE 
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-120W AND 92W-101W. 
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXETNDS FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 113W NW 
TO 7N117W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN
119W-122W. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING 
W 10-15 KT ALONG 12N113W 5N118W SHOULD HELP KICK OFF CONVECTION 
DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
111W-118W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH 
MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT EXTENDS FROM 10N96W TO 3N101W.

W OF 120W...  
A RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION 
THROUGH 25N140W...AND STRETCHES SE THROUGH 21N134W TO 16N127W 
AND TO 8N122W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE SW OF THIS TROUGH. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN
TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TAKE
HOLD OVER THE AREA N OF 15N DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXETNDS SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 
32N136W...AND EXTENDS SE TO 23N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA 
THE AREA N OF 19N AND W OF 125W. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS 
CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED NW OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N125W TO 
24N140W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND 
LOCATED NW OF THE REGION DRIFTS SW AND WEAKENS SOME.

EXPECT CROSS-EQUATORIAL SLY SWELLS OF 8 TO 9 FT S OF 6N BETWEEN 
92W AND 102W TO POSSIBLY BUILD TO 11 FT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. 
 
$$
AGUIRRE