000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122224
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC THU JUN 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W N OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE EXTENDS N TO ACROSS SE MEXICO...AND REACHES N INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
WAVE REMAINS CONFINED TO OVER NRN GUATEMALA AND THE NW
YUCATAN PENINSULA AS DRY AIR OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS MAINTAINS
A LID ON ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING NEAR THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W
10N90W 5N100W 6N110W 7N120W 10N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 92W-100W...AND ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 113W-120W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF
LINE FROM 5N126W TO 5N131W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER NRN MEXICO NEAR
27N104W...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM
THE ANTICYCLONE THROUGH 28N118W TO NW OF THE AREA NEAR 32N118W.
A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING NW ABOUT 15 KT IS NEAR
23N112W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...EXPECT NEAR THE 
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-120W AND 92W-101W. A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXETNDS FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 112W NW TO 
7N118W. DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS SEEN FROM 5N TO 
13N BETWEEN 115W-120W. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 11N115W 5N118W IS HELPING TO KEEP THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 113W-120W DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER 
ITCZ RATHER ACTIVE.

W OF 120W...  
A RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION 
THROUGH 25N140W...AND STRETCHES SE THROUGH 21N134W TO 16N127W 
AND TO 8N122W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE SW OF THIS TROUGH. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN
TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TAKE
HOLD OVER THE AREA N OF 15N DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXETNDS SE INTO AREA THROUGH 32N136W...
AND EXTENDS TO 21N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA THE AREA N OF 
18N AND W OF 125W. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 
OBSERVED NW OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N125W TO 25N140W. THESE WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE 
HIGH CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND LOCATED NW OF THE 
REGION DRIFTS SW AND WEAKENS SOME.

EXPECT CROSS-EQUATORIAL SLY SWELLS OF 8 TO 9 FT S OF 5N BETWEEN 
92W AND 105W TO POSSIBLY BUILD TO 11 FT IN 72 HOURS. 
 
$$
AGUIRRE