000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W N OF 13N TO OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA/S 
MEXICO MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA 
OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD CYCLONIC TURNING ON THE N END OF 
THE WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOMEWHAT HARDER TO PLACE ON 
THE SOUTHERN END HOWEVER. NO ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY IN THE E 
PACIFIC REGION. 

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE 
...06N77W TO 05N81W TO 08N91W TO 05N103W TO 07N119W TO 05N135W 
TO 06N140W. ITCZ IS NOT VERY ACTIVE THIS EVENING WITH SMALL AREA 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS 
FROM 120W TO 124W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 115W...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S/CENTRAL 
MEXICO...PROVIDING EASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL EAST 
PACIFIC S OF 13N. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING 
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING W WILL KEEP THE ANY 
CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE WAVE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS VERY 
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ...AND NO MAJOR TRIGGER 
IS NOTED ALOFT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
THE S TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND WILL MOVE N UP THE W COAST 
OF BAJA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 
94W FROM 3N TO 11N AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE 
REMAINING IN PLACE...SPORADIC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE 
ITCZ IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. 

W OF 115W...  
A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 41N141W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST GENERALLY N 
OF 26N AND W OF 125W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SW AND LOW PRESSURE 
TO THE EAST WEAKENS. SWELLS UP TO 10 FT WILL PERSIST HOWEVER 
THROUGH FRI. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N130W TO 10N122W AND 
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE W COVERING THE AREA TO W OF 140W.  

SWELLS UP TO 10 FT FROM S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 95W ARE INCREASING 
AND PUSHING FURTHER N THROUGH SAT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE FIRST 
OF NEXT WEEK.  

$$
WALLACE