000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W N OF 05N TO OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA 
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD CYCLONIC 
TURNING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE OVER YUCATAN. IT IS 
SOMEWHAT HARDER TO PLACE ON ITS SOUTHERN END HOWEVER. SATELLITE 
DERIVED LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE ITCZ SHOW CYCLONIC 
TURNING WEST OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE...NEAR AN AREA OF 
WEAKENING CONVECTION NEAR 93W. 

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE 
...05N77W TO 05N90W TO 08N105W TO 08N115W TO 06N120W TO 06N140W. 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

WEST OF 110W THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE.  ONE AREA HAS ONLY THIN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND 
EXTENDS FROM 20N TO 30N WEST OF 132W. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF A SHARP TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE 
AREA WITH AN AXIS ALONG THE LINE 30N140W TO 20N152W. THIS 
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR DRIFT A LITTLE WEST 
AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE OTHER AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND HAS MULTI LEVEL 
BROKEN CLOUDS AND EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 10N WEST OF 133W. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W TO 133W. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA WEST OF 110W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS. OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS NORTH OF 17N TO 28N AND 
WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST TO 32N.

EAST OF 110W THE AREA IS BECOMING MORE DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS WITH CLOUDS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
AND SOUTH ALONG 110W TO 17N. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CHANGE 
LITTLE AND MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE WEAK 
RIDGE IS NORTH OF 10N WEST OF 100W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS 
ANALYZED AS A WEAK TROUGH.

$$
LL