000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111011
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W N OF 6N MOVING W AT 20 KT. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD CYCLONIC TURNING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE 
WAVE OVER YUCATAN. IT IS SOMEWHAT HARDER TO PLACE ON ITS 
SOUTHERN END HOWEVER. SATELLITE DERIVED LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS 
SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING WEST OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE 
WAVE...NEAR AN AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION NEAR 91W. 

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W TO
05N96W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 94W...RAPIDLY WEAKENING.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO...PROVIDING EASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL EAST 
PACIFIC S OF 15N. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING 
INTO THE AREA...AND MAY BE THE IMPETUS FOR THE CONVECTION NOTED 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 
VERY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ...AND NO MAJOR 
TRIGGER IS NOTED ALOFT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. ABUNDANT LOWER TO MID 
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND SPORADIC CONVECTION IS 
POSSIBLE ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE ADVANCING WAVE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...WW3...UKMET...AND FNMOC WAVE MODELS 
REMAIN A COUPLE OF FEET TOO HIGH WITH SW SWELL BASED ON AN 
AFTERNOON JASON ALTIMETER PASS AND RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS. 
MIXES SE AND SW SWELL WILL PERSIST MAINLY S OF 05N W OF THE 
GALAPAGOS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

W OF 110W...  
1036 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 42N138W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST GENERALLY N OF 
27N AND W OF 135W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SW AND LOW PRESSURE 
TO THE EAST WEAKENS. SWELL UP TO 10 FT WILL PERSIST HOWEVER 
THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES BETWEEN AN 
UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL BAJA...AND AN UPPER TROUGH FROM 26N135W 
TO 10N120W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE 
ITCZ...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY LATER 
TODAY IN THE AREA OF DIVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 115W 
AND 130W. FURTHER WEST...STRONGER TRADE WINDS CONVERGENCE IS 
AIDING A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR 140W MOVING LITTLE. 
MIXED SE AND SW SWELL UP TO 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS N OVER 
THE EQUATOR TO ROUGHLY 5N AS FAR WEST AS 130W OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN