000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100933
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W THROUGH PANAMA MOVING W 10-15 KT 
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER NW COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...

10N86W TO 04N98W TO 08N116W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 93W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE MEXICAN COAST 
BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO. AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 
MOSTLY WEST WINDS IN THIS AREA WITH WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING...AND 
IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A CLOSED SURFACE LOW IS ACTUALLY PRESENT. 
HOWEVER UPPER RIDGE ALOFT IS PROVIDING UPPER OUTFLOW AND 
ENHANCING CONTINUOUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER 
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO...BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. 
ELSEWHERE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER 
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ITCZ AMONG 
OTHER LOCATION. CONVECTION MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF COSTA 
RICA AND PANAMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN HIGH 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE AREA AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE EAST ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN 
UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION. SEAS REMAIN 
GENERALLY UNDER 8 FT PER A JASON ALTIMETER PASS FROM AROUND 21Z. 
SW SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT IS NOTED MAINLY S OF 05S AND W OF 100W. 
NO MAJORS CHANGES EXPECTED.
 
W OF 110W...SHIP REPORTS SHOWED NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT GENERALLY N 
OF 25N W OF 120W...JIVING WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA. THIS IS ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED 
N OF THE AREA. GENERALLY MODERATE FLOW IS NOTED ELSEWHERE. LONG 
PERIOD SWELL MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IS DECAYING...ALTHOUGH SW 
SWELL UP TO 8 FT IN NOTED S OF ROUGHLY 05N. LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK ALONG THE ITCZ. ALONG WITH 
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THIS EXPLAINS THE FACT THAT THERE 
IS VIRTUALLY NO MAJOR CONVECTION IN THE AREA. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN