000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE IS A 
HINT OF SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE ISOLATED 
SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE BASE OF THE WAVE. THIS FEATURE MAY BE 
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE AXIS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 9N91W 11N100W 7N120W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
CENTERED JUST INLAND OR NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE VICINITY 
OF 16N97W...ANALYZED 1005 MB. THIS BROAD LOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY 
ORGANIZING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS BUILT DOWNWARD 
TO THE SFC...WITH SEVERAL SHIP OBS DISPLAYING A FAIR AMOUNT OF 
CYCLONIC TURNING. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER A 
LARGE AREA ON ITS S SIDE FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 94W-102W. 
HOWEVER...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO 
THE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE MAIN THREAT IS LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND 
MUDSLIDES...OVER MEXICO ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WESTWARD TO NEAR ZIHUATANEJO.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINS IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH 
SCATTERED PATCHES OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OF 16-18 SECONDS HAS REACHED THE COAST 
OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO 
MAINTAIN SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

W OF 110W...
N TO NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE WATERS ROUGHLY 
NW OF LINE FROM 30N123W TO 18N140W DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN A STATIONARY 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 36N143W AND 
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SW 
CONUS. LARGE N SWELL PROPAGATING S FROM STRONG FUNNELING N WINDS 
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS GENERATING SEAS AS HIGH AS 13 FT 
NEAR 30N125W. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW AND 
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL FOCUS IN THE SAME REGION AS THE SWELL 
VECTOR TURNS NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE 
WITH BROAD RIDGING REMAINING OVER S BAJA AND A PAIR OF RIDGES 
LYING N AND W OF THE REGION. TRAPPED BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS AN 
ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 22N137W. THIS COMPLEX PATTERN IS 
PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER BESIDES FOR ENHANCING AN AREA 
OF CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W-128W. 

$$
CANGIALOSI