000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W N OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MUCH OF 
THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
THERE IS A HINT OF SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE 
SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE BASE OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 
89W-91W. OTHERWISE...LITTLE INFLUENCE EXISTS OVER THE EPAC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 6N90W 10N102W 7N120W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IS A BROAD ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES 
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 16N96.5W...ANALYZED 1008 MB. THIS 
BROAD LOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF 
DAYS AND HAS BUILT DOWNWARD TO THE SFC...WITH SEVERAL SHIP OBS 
AT 18Z DISPLAYING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING. ASSOCIATED 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER A LARGE AREA ON ITS S AND SW 
SIDE FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 93W-103W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO 
NO DEVELOPMENT AS IT IS NOW INTERACTING WITH LAND. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINS IN A MOIST 
ENVIRONMENT WITH SCATTERED PATCHES OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE ITCZ. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OF 16-18 SECONDS HAS LIKELY 
REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE SWELLS 
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE NEAR THE 
COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

W OF 110W...
A LARGE AREA OF 20-25 KT N TO NE WINDS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE 
NW WATERS ROUGHLY N OF 25N W OF 125W DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN A STATIONARY 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 36N143W AND 
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SW 
CONUS. LARGE N SWELL PROPAGATING S FROM STRONG FUNNELING N WINDS 
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS GENERATING SEAS AS HIGH AS 13 FT 
NEAR 30N124W. THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW AND THE 
HIGHEST SEAS WILL FOCUS IN THE SAME REGION AS THE SWELL VECTOR 
TURNS NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE 
WITH BROAD RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE S BAJA AND A PAIR OF 
RIDGES LYING N AND W OF THE REGION. TRAPPED BETWEEN THESE 
SYSTEMS IS AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 21N136W. THIS COMPLEX 
PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER BESIDES FOR 
ENHANCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W-127W. 

$$
CANGIALOSI