000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUN 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 86W N OF 
9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS 
IT IS EMBEDDED IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN WHICH HAS PRODUCED A 
LARGE AREA OF MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS...OBSCURING ANY LOW-LEVEL 
SIGNATURE. THIS FEATURE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED AREAS 
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND SE NICARAGUA. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 12N95W 9N110W 7N127W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF 
THE AXIS E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 97W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W-119W.  

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A SLOW MOVING BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED SW OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 15N97W. MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH IT EARLIER HAS WEAKENED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS CONFINED TO N OF 14N BETWEEN 96W-99W AND A LARGER ZONE 
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ (OUTLINED ABOVE). WHILE SEVERAL SHIP 
REPORTS SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF A SFC CIRCULATION...LOW-MID LEVEL 
CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS 
AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL 
MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS...BUT MOST OF THEM KEEP THIS 
LOW/TROUGH A FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
WHILE QSCAT AND ASCAT BOTH MISSED THE DIRECT AREA OF INTEREST 
EARLIER THEY DO SUGGEST ENHANCED SW 15-20 KT WINDS FROM 7N-13N 
BETWEEN 95W-105W. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH LONG PERIOD 
16-18 SECOND SW SWELL ARE INCREASING SEAS OVER MUCH OF THIS 
REGION S OF 12N. 

W OF 110W...
THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS PORTION OF THE EPAC IS THE STRONG 20-25 
KT N TO NE WINDS OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM 30N119W TO 21N140W. 
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PRODUCING THESE CONDITIONS CONSIST OF A 
STATIONARY 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 35N142W AND BROAD LOW PRES 
TROUGHING OVER THE SW CONUS. SWELLS PROPAGATING S FROM GALE 
CONDITIONS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST HAS BUILT SEAS TO 15 FT NEAR 
30N AND THESE WINDS AND SWELLS ARE ANTICIPATED TO ONLY SLACKEN 
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

THE MID-UPPER PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WITH BROAD 
RIDGING EXTENDING W FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALONG 24N TO 
130W...ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 145W AND WEAK 
TROUGHING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 
22N134W. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN IS CAUSING LITTLE SENSIBLE 
WEATHER BESIDES FOR ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ E OF 119W.

$$
CANGIALOSI