000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072113
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUN 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W N OF 
9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS 
IT IS EMBEDDED IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN WHICH HAS PRODUCED A 
LARGE AREA OF MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS...OBSCURING ANY LOW-LEVEL 
SIGNATURE. BASED ON ITS EXTRAPOLATION POSITION...IT MAY BE 
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER 
PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND SE NICARAGUA. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED 08N78W 07N90W 11N100W 08N110W 05N125W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 
AXIS E OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 93W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-124W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A SLOW MOVING BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED S OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...IN THE VICINITY OF 15N96W...IS PERTURBING THE ITCZ 
AND CAUSING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
(OUTLINED ABOVE). THE STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE IMPROVED 
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT STILL LACKS A WELL-DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS... 
BUT MOST OF THEM KEEP THIS LOW/TROUGH A FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE QSCAT AND ASCAT BOTH MISSED THE 
DIRECT AREA OF INTEREST THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON THEY DO SUGGEST 
ENHANCED SW 15-20 KT WINDS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 95W-115W. THESE 
WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH LONG PERIOD 16-18 SECOND SW SWELL IS 
INCREASING SEAS OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION S OF 12N. 

W OF 110W...
THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS PORTION OF THE EPAC IS THE STRONG N TO 
NE WINDS N OF 24N BETWEEN 119W-135W....AS SUGGESTED BY THE 
LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND SFC DATA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN 
PRODUCING THESE CONDITIONS CONSIST OF A STATIONARY 1033 MB HIGH 
NEAR 35N143W AND BROAD LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER THE SW CONUS. 
SWELLS PROPAGATING S FROM GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE CALIFORNIA HAS 
BUILT SEAS TO 15 FT NEAR 30N AND THESE WINDS AND SWELLS ARE 
ANTICIPATED TO ONLY SLAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. 
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WITH BROAD RIDGING 
EXTENDING W FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALONG 23N TO 
130W...ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 143W AND WEAK 
TROUGHING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 
23N135W. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN IS CAUSING LITTLE SENSIBLE 
WEATHER BESIDES FOR ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ E OF 124W.

$$
CANGIALOSI