000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUN 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER COSTA RICA AND ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF 
NICARAGUA NEAR 83W N OF 6N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ACCORDING TO THE 
MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT...THE WAVE MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY 
SURGE SPREADING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 80W-85W WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS CONTINUING S ACROSS COSTA RICA TO THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W 14N94W 09N105W 09N115W 
06N127W 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
03N-07N E OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 87W-113W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
116W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...

A NEARLY ZONAL POLAR JET LIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC 
WATERS...DIVING SLIGHTLY SE INTO THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE EXTENDS FROM 
HAWAII EWD TO 125W WHILE GENERAL UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE FAR 
EASTERN PACIFIC.

E OF 110W...
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS QUARANTINED OVER THE AREA E OF 110W 
BRIDGING ACROSS SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN THE 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE 
LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM W OF ACAPULCO WITH AN EXTENDED 
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING SE TO JUST OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR. THE 
UPPER FLOW IS RATHER CHAOTIC BUT IN GENERAL NE/E FLOW DOMINATES 
THE TROPICAL WATERS. A 25 KT UPPER JET EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 100W AND IS HELPING TO PRODUCE 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE W OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND FOSTERING CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ITCZ. FARTHER N...A SMALL UPPER LOW IS 
CENTERED SW OF MANZANILLO NEAR 16N108W AND IS DRAWING SOME OF 
THE DEEPER MOISTURE NWD INTO S/CENTRAL MEXICO. AS A 
RESULT...SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE CONTINUED INTO THE NIGHT OVER LAND 
S OF 23N ALL THE WAY DOWN THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS. TO THE 
N...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING MUCH OF 
NW MEXICO.

W OF 110W...
AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N115W WITH 
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING MUCH OF 
THE REGION. THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR HAWAII CONTINUES TO 
MOVE W BUT A NEW UPPER LOW HAS FORMED WITHIN THE AREA NEAR 
24N132W AND CONNECTS TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW NEAR 14N122W. 20-25 KT 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LIES ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THESE LOWS 
AND COVERS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FLOW 
IS BRINGING JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS E OF 140W. A STRONG SURFACE 
HIGH W OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING GALES ALONG THE COAST...AND A 
BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT SURFACE WINDS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA N OF 
23N BETWEEN 120W-134W. THIS IS ALSO BRINGING LARGE 8-13 FT 
NORTHERLY SWELLS INTO THE AREA...WHICH COULD BUILD TO 15 FT NEAR 
30N LATER TODAY.

$$
BERG