000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUN 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER PANAMA ALONG 81W N OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 
KT. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WAVE AND A 
HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF 
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
WITHIN 60 NM OFFSHORE INTO THE EPAC FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 05N77W 10N94W 09N110W 07N125W 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 105W-111W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIES OVER MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE EPAC.  
THE ITCZ AND A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN 
CULPRITS IN CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE 
DEEPEST AND MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT GROUPED IN 
THE ITCZ. A MID-LEVEL ROTATION...VORTICITY MAXIMUM...REMAINS 
EVIDENT NEAR 13N94W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ON ITS S SIDE 
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 93W-97W. A COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS 
DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...A FAIR 
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...LONG PERIOD SW SWELL OF 16-18 
SECONDS WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
MEXICO TOMORROW AND SUNDAY.

W OF 110W...
THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER HIGH 
CENTERED OVER THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING 
W ALONG 24N TO ABOUT 127W AND A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING E TO A SMALL SCALE 
UPPER LOW NEAR 24N132W. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE 
SENSIBLE WEATHER AND IN FACT IS HELPING TO DRY/SINK THE AIR 
BETWEEN THE FEATURES IN A CONFLUENT ZONE. STRONG W TO NW FLOW TO 
THE SE OF THE LARGE LOW OVER HAWAII IS GENERATING SOME 
CLOUDINESS AND A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 123W AND 127W. 

AT THE SFC...THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1032 MB 
HIGH NEAR 35N143W AND BROAD LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER THE SW CONUS 
IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT N WINDS N OF 23N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 
120W-130W. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH N SWELL...FROM GALE 
CONDITIONS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 15 
FT TOMORROW OVER THE N WATERS.

$$
CANGIALOSI