000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE HAS JUST ENTERED THE FAR E WATERS ALONG 79W/80W N 
OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WAVE AND A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN 
IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE E HALF OF 
HONDURAS. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N78W TO 10N100W TO 09N110W TO 
07N125W 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
96W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 
86W-88W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W-82W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIES OVER MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE EPAC S 
OF 17N. THE ITCZ AND A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN APPEAR TO BE THE 
MAIN CULPRITS IN CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION. MOST OF 
THIS CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND GROUPED WITHIN THE ITCZ... 
EXCEPT FOR ONE PATCH IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH EXHIBITS 
SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION. A FEW OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A 
WEAK LOW OR TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK. WHILE THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE 
WILL LIKELY HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
MEANWHILE...LONG PERIOD SW SWELL OF 16-18 SECONDS WILL PUSH 
TOWARD THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO TOMORROW AND 
SUNDAY.

W OF 110W...
THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER HIGH 
CENTERED OVER THE S GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING W 
ALONG 23N TO ABOUT 127W...A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING E TO NEAR THE W 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE 
SENSIBLE WEATHER AND IN FACT IS HELPING TO DRY THE AIR BETWEEN 
THE FEATURES IN A CONFLUENT ZONE. STRONG W TO NW FLOW TO THE SE 
OF THE LARGE LOW OVER HAWAII IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS AND A 
SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 128W. 

AT THE SFC...THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1032 MB 
HIGH NEAR 36N144W AND BROAD LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER THE SW CONUS 
IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT N WINDS N OF 23N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 
120W-130W. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH N SWELL...FROM DEVELOPING 
GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 
15 FT TOMORROW OVER THE N WATERS.

$$
CANGIALOSI