000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 6N IS MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IN SMALL CLUSTERS ARE ALONG...AND JUST OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF PANAMA AND SRN COAST OF COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W
13N95W 10N108W 7N120W 5N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
91W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-111W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW UNITED STATES SW
TO NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW TO 28N119W WHERE IT BECOMES A 
SHEAR AXIS SW TO 26N123W. NW OF THE TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE IS
BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH TIME FROM 32N132W TO 28N121W. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE WITHIN 330 NM SW OF THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY ERODING FROM 
THE E AS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE SPREADS WWD INTO THE WRN PORTION
OF THE AREA. A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 12N135W SE TO 5N127W.
 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N112W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...AND FURTHER NE TO ACROSS 
ERN TEXAS AND THE NRN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED NEAR 13N94W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER 
LEVELS OF THE TROPICS GENERALLY E OF ABOUT 95W. ASSOCIATED UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 89W-104W. RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
SPREADING SSW FROM THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 02N. 
ELSEWHERE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING IN THE MID AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS CONTINUING TO RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS PRIMARILY FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W-127W.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRES REMAINS OVER MUCH OF MEXICO AND
COVERS THE ERN PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF 15N AND E OF 115W. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 9N85W...AND
WITHIN 30 NM OF 8N82W.

HIGH PRES OF 1029 MB IS ANALYZED JUST NW OF THE REGION NEAR 
33N142W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SEWD THROUGH 29N135W TO 21N122W.
HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 122W. A VERY TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT CREATED DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW 
PRES OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES AND NRN MEXICO IS PRODUCING NW 
WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 27N E OF 125W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS THERE 
IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS REACHING TO GALE 
CONTINUE JUST N OF THIS PART OF THIS AREA.

SLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE SRN WATERS FROM 4N TO 
10N BETWEEN 92W-110W.

$$
AGUIRRE