000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040333 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUN 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE JUST INLAND THE COAST COLOMBIA ALONG 77W N OF 4N IS MOVING W 15 KT. EXPECT WAVE TO EMERGE OUT OVER THE ADJACENT COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...AND SHOULD HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA AND PACIFIC WATERS S OF THERE. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 13N87W 14N95W 10N102W 08N114W 04N124W 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 6N111W 6N114W. ...DISCUSSION... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW THROUGH 27N120W...WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS SW THROUGH 24N125W TO 19N135W AND TO W OF THE REGION AT 16N140W. NW OF THIS TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE IS COLLAPSING SEWD FROM 32N142W TO 31N119W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE...AND DIVING INTO THE AREA TO THE N OF 27N AND W OF 118W. A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N133W SE TO 10N132W TO 6N130W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 27N101W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 23N108W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES SW TO 16N115W AND TO 7N1227W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED NEAR 13N91W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPICS GENERALLY E OF 101W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-109W. RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING SSW FROM THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 03N. OTHERWISE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS CONTINUING TO RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PRIMARILY S OF 9N BETWEEN 114W-135W. AT THE SURFACE...A SMALL LOW CENTER IS JUST INLAND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N94W. IT IS PART OF LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT COVERS SE MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LOW IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES FURTHER ABSORBED INTO THE GYRE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND ALONG THE COAST. LARGE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR AND THE SE PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STATIONARY HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED JUST NW OF THE REGION NEAR 33N143W 1029 MB WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SEWD THROUGH 28N133W TO 25N128W TO 19N122W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 124W. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 23N E OF 125W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS THERE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS REACHING TO GALE CONDITIONS ARE JUST N OF THIS PART OF THIS AREA. SLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE SRN WATERS FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 91W AND 110W. $$ AGUIRRE