000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A WEAKENING SMALL LOW CENTER IS CROSSING THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
16N94W AS IT MOVES NE INTO A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT COVERS
SE MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LOW IS LIKELY TO
LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT BECOMES FURTHER ABSORBED INTO THE GYRE 
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER IN THE SEMICIRCLE. LARGE 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...
EL SALVADOR AND THE SE PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE AREA IS OVER NW COLOMBIA N OF 04N 
ALONG 76W/77W MOVING W 15 KT. EXPECT WAVE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE 
FAR ERN PACIFIC WATERS DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. CONVECTION 
MAY INCREASE ALONG AND S OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AS THE WAVE 
PROGRESSES WWD.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 09N80W
13N87W 14N95W 10N102W 08N114W 04N124W 01N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 05N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 98W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SW THROUGH 28N118W...WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS SW TO AN
ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N131W
...THEN CONTINUES SW TO ANOTHER ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
W OF THE REGION NEAR 16N146W. NW OF THIS TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE 
IS COLLAPSING SEWD FROM 32N142W TO 32N119W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE...AND DIVING INTO THE AREA TO THE N
OF 27N AND W OF 119W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 12N133W TO 04N130W IS MOVING W 15 KT.
 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 
27N103W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 24N107W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES SW TO 
18N110W TO 14N115W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED NEAR 13N88W 
WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER 
LEVELS OF THE TROPICS GENERALLY E OF 101W. ASSOCIATED UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-109W. RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
SPREADING SSW FROM THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 02N. 
OTHERWISE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING IN THE MID AND UPPER  
LEVELS IS CONTINUING TO LIMIT CONVECTION TO A ONLY ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PRIMARILY S OF 09N BETWEEN 118W-133W.

AT THE SURFACE...STATIONARY HIGH PRESS NEAR 33N142W 1030 MB 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD TO 28N130W TO 23N122W. HIGH PRES COVERS
THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 120W. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED
DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE 
WRN UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT...WITH HIGHER
SPEEDS REACHING TO GALE CONDITIONS JUST N OF THE AREA...OVER THE
FAR NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 21N BETWEEN 110W-125W.
SEAS THERE ARE BUILDING 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL.

SLY WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 02N TO
08N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W.

$$
AGUIRRE