000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 15N93W 1007 MB IS DRIFTING N AND 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATE TODAY REACHING THE SW BAY OF 
CAMPECHE SUNRISE WED. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THIS LOW MAY 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING INLAND. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. LARGE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE 
LIKELY AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND 
THE SE PORTION OF MEXICO.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 
12N97W TO 02N132W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 13N OVER THE WATERS E OF 111W.   
ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N92W.

...DISCUSSION...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 32N116W TO 20N135W 
INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 15N148W. NW OF THIS TROUGH AN UPPER 
RIDGE IS COLLAPSING SE ALONG 33N144W TO 34N119W ACCOMPANIED BY 
UPPER MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER OLD 
MEXICO NEAR 27N103W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 12N118W. 
JUST TO THE SW OF THIS RIDGE AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED AT 19N97W 
MOVING SW WITH TIME. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED NEAR 
12N81W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE 
UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPICS E OF 94W. ASSOCIATED UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE LOW AND 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 74W AND 117W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE BASICALLY REMAINING S OF 16N E OF 118W. OTHERWISE THE 
UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY AND LIMITING CONVECTION TO A ONLY A 
FEW TSTMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 33N144W 1028 MB RIDGES SE TO 20N118W. 
NW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE WATERS N OF 17N 
BETWEEN 125W AND THE BAJA PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE 
INCREASING OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W 
AND 85W.  

$$
NELSON