000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 15N93W 1007 MB IS MOVING N ABOUT 
7 KT...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES THAT 
COVERS THE E PACIFIC WATERS AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS FROM 11N-17N 
BETWEEN 90W-100W. THIS AREA STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE CENTER...WITH MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 93W-98W. THIS SYSTEM 
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND 
THE SE PORTION OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT TRACKS 
TOWARDS LAND.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W 71N115W 
2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 250 NM S 
OF THE AXIS FROM BETWEEN 94W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N119W SW TO 20N130W 
TO 16N140W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING NW OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERING PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 23N AND W OF 113W 
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. A LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN MEXICO
NEAR 24N105W. A FEW TSTMS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...OTHERWISE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N.

THE WIND FLOW AROUND A SMALL WEAK CYCLONIC VORTEX JUST INLAND
THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 17N94W IS INTERACTING THAT OF THE AREA OF 
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC TO ITS W TO CREATE A DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IMMEDIATE VICINITY. THIS PATTERN 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE THE LOW PRES AREA 
DESCRIBED ABOVE.

SURFACE 1028 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NW OF THE DISCUSSION 
REGION NEAR 34N146W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH 34N133W 
TO 23N118W. PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WWD WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N W OF 122W.

$$
DGS