000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 15N93W 1007 MB IS MOVING N 
ABOUT 7 KT...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES
THAT COVERS THE E PACIFIC WATERS AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS FROM 
11N-17N BETWEEN 90W-100W. THIS AREA STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO 
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LATEST 
NIGHT CHANNEL ENHANCEMENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
A PRETTY WELL-DEFINED SMALL CIRCULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IR 
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM SE OF 
THE CENTER...AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM 
13N-15N BETWEEN 94W-97W...AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF 15N97W.
THE MAIN EMPHASIS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND THE SE 
PORTION OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS
LAND.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W
12N94W 08N102W 06N110W 06N121W 04N130W 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 94W-104W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 103W-107W.

...DISCUSSION...

SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N123W
...AND EXTENDS SW TO 26N127W AND TO 22N131W WHERE ITS BECOMES
MORE OF A SHEAR AXIS TO W OF THE AREA NEAR 17N140W. SW TO W
WINDS ARE NOTED S OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 4N. THE TROUGH IS
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO BROAD AREAS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
...ONE CENTERED OVER WRN MEXICO NEAR 23N104W AND THE OTHER WELL 
NW OF THE REGION. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR ONLY THE NRN PART OF 
THE TROUGH TO PROGRESS EWD AT THE PRESENT TIME. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING PRACTICALLY 
THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 23N AND W OF 113W SUPPRESSING DEEP 
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING THERE.

THE WIND FLOW AROUND A SMALL WEAK CYCLONIC VORTEX JUST INLAND
THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 18N94W IS INTERACTING THAT OF THE AREA OF 
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC TO ITS W TO CREATE A DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IMMEDIATE VICINITY. THIS PATTERN 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE THE LOW PRES AREA 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. NLY AND ELY UPPER WINDS FOUND HERE ARE 
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION TO 
THE SW AND W. THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 
48-72 HRS.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED N OF THE 
DISCUSSION REGION NEAR 32N132W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD 
THROUGH 27N127W TO 17N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N 
W OF 117W. PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WWD WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 12N W OF 122W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NRN PORTION
OF COSTA RICA...NW HONDURAS AND THE SE PART OF BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG...AND UP 60 NM OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 05N.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED OVER MUCH OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

$$
AGUIRRE