000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021610
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 09N79W TO 10N86W AND 8N98W TO 
04N120W TO 04N140W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 45 NM S OF AXIS FROM 98W-109W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N123W TO 20N133W 
TO 17N140W RACES NE PUSHED BY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST 
N OF IT.  BROAD RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT NW OF TROUGH.  MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG SHARP TROUGH AND UNDER DOWNSTREAM 
ANTICYCLONE AT 23N105W KEEPING VERY DRY AIR MASS AT MID/UPPER 
LEVELS W OF 112W.

WEAK CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE PRODUCING 
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH CENTRAL MEXICO RIDGE 
ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION OVER REMNANTS OF ARTHUR AND OVER GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHERE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES CENTER IS 
EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS.  AREA CONTINUES UNDER HEAVY 
PRECIPITATION. 

OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH UNCERTAINTY STILL ABOUND WITH FORMATION OF LOW PRES NEAR 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 
36-48 HRS...SO WINDS AROUND GULF REMAIN VERY HARD TO PREDICT. 

HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB AT 33N130W SQUEEZING GRADIENT WITH LOW 
PRES 1004 MB OVER ERN CALIFORNIA PRODUCING STRONG NLY WINDS 
ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ASSOCIATED LONG PERIOD LARGE 
SWELLS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES