000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011559
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 107N78W TO 07N83W AND FROM 10N93W TO 06N104W TO 
09N123W TO 04N137W TO 04N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM 
N OF AXIS FROM 90W TO 105W AND WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF 08N82W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N132W TO 19N140W 
HAS ADVECTED LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NW OF AXIS RIDING ON 90 
KT JET CORE. TROUGH EXPECTED TO TURN NE AS UNDAUNTED ANTICYCLONE
STUBBORNLY REFUSES TO YIELD OR EVEN MOVE FROM ITS WELL ANCHORED 
CENTER ALONG CENTRAL MEXICO.  SRN PORTION OF RIDGE COMBINES WITH 
WEAK TROUGH OVER ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO KEEP HEALTHY DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ALOFT RIGHT OVER TRPCL DEPRESSION ARTHUR FUELING SYSTEM AND 
MAINTAINING IT ALIVE IN SPITE OF BEING OVER LAND SINCE ITS 
INCEPTION.  MOST IMPACTING EFFECT OF ARTHUR IS ITS TORRENTIAL 
RAINS OVER AREAS ALREADY SOAKED PREVIOUSLY BY TRPCL STORM ALMA. 

ARTHUR OUTFLOW...WITH HELP FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...NOW PUMPING 
SOME TRPCL MOISTURE DEBRIS INTO ITCZ E OF 105W.  REMAINDER OF E 
PAC...EXCEPT NW CORNER...REMAINS FAIRLY DRY. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB AT 35N128W TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH LOW 
PRES OVER NEVADA SRN CORNER TO PROVOKE STRONG N-NW WINDS ALONG 
CALIFORNIA COAST DIGGING S ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA.  UPPER LEVEL 
REINFORCEMENT OF LOW PRES LIKELY TO INCREASE WINDS THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD.  SOME WLY FLOW TO SPILL OVER S COAST OF MEXICO 
PULLED BY ARTHUR SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING 
AND EXPECT TO BE REMNANT LOW PRES WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES