000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 06N102W TO 04N115W TO 05N130W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 04N106W TO 04N109W LINE 
AND FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 125W 
WITH THE AXIS ALONG 133W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING E ABOUT 15 KNOTS. 
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N139W TO BEYOND 
29N142W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 17N110W...MOVING NW ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE CIRCULATION IS 
ABOUT 12 DEGREES IN DIAMETER. IN BETWEEN THE ABOVE TWO FEATURES 
A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT EXTENDS FROM ABOUT 28N105W TO NEAR 20N130W. A 
BAND OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT EXTENDS FROM 22N128W 
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS 
INDICATING WINDS IN THE 45 TO 55 KNOT RANGE. A WESTERLY JET 
STREAM IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS LOCATED THROUGH 12N140W TO NEAR 
10N132W. AT THE SURFACE 20 KNOT NW TO N WINDS ARE LOCATED N OF 
25N E OF 122W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS 
AND SEAS TO 10 FEET IN 24 HOURS. 

E OF 100W...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS LOCATED OVER LAND NEAR 18.4N88.9W AT 
2100Z OR ABOUT 75 MILES NW OF BELIZE CITY. ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER 
MOST THE EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 
91W AND 100W. 

$$
CAB