000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311615
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 05N78W TO 05N100W TO 04N113W TO 06N124W TO 05N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 105W-115W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 136W.

 ...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N135W TO 18N140W ADVECTING 
PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO E PAC NW OF AXIS...BUT CONTINUES WITH 
VERY DRY AIR MASS FROM AXIS TO 100W N OF 06N WITH HELP OF VERY 
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATE FLOW IN REMAINING OF 
BASIN.  RIDGE CENTER OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR 
IN THE STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER NOW OVER BELIZE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT ENTIRE AIR COLUMN AVAILABLE...
COURTESY OF NOW DEFUNCT TRPCL STORM ALMA...GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT FROM UPPER RIDGE AND VORTICITY CENTER EXPECTED TO MOVE 
INTO WARM GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ARE INGREDIENTS OF CONCERN IN 
SYSTEM FORECAST DEVELOPMENT.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO AFFECT LARGE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
...FROM ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH YUCATAN TO BELIZE.  
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OVER WATER IS N OF 10N FROM 92W-99W WILL TRACK 
W WITH ATTENTION FOCUSING IN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND SUN. 
WINDS ALONG MEXICAN COAST EXPECTED TO BECOME W-NW AND INCREASE 
AS A POSSIBLE TRPCL CYCLONE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED...IN SPITE OF 
REMAINING OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

MERGING HIGH PRES CENTERS N OF AREA ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST 
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FORCING N-NW WINDS E OF 120W EVENTUALLY 
ADDING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO THE SEA CONDITIONS ALONG BAJA 
CALIFORNIA W COAST. 

$$
WALLY BARNES