000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310949 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT MAY 31 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .NONE. ...ITCZ... AXIS FROM 05N77W TO 05N90W TO 06N100W TO 04N110W TO 06N126W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 113W. ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION N OF 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 100W... SCATTERED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE YUCATAN AND GUATEMALA. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY APPEARS A RATHER CIRCULAR BLOB OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WHICH HAS ROTATED CYCLONICALLY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EITHER RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM ALMA AND/OR A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH MARCHED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES HAVE RECENTLY CONSOLIDATED INTO A BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHOULD THE CENTER REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WHETHER IT DOES OR NOT...ITS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING NW FROM THE YUCATAN TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE..THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THE LAST FEW DAYS AND RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LED TO A RATHER DRAMATIC LATE SPRING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THE LAST 48 HOURS. AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY REVEALS THAT THE EVENT IS BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN...WITH N 20 TO 25 KT WINDS CONFINED TO WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE COAST WITHIN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STILL THOUGH ...SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT LIKELY PERSIST NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THIS REGION FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL PROPAGATING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND N SWELL LOCALLY GENERATED. AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN HEADS SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND PRESSURES BEGIN TO LOWER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WINDS SHOULD ABATE ENTIRELY. SEAS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...BUT SPOTTY 8 FT SEAS WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA UNTIL AT LEAST LATE DAY. W OF 100W... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS...AND OTHER DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST OFFSHORE THE U.S. WEST COAST THROUGH THE WATERS W OF 125W...WITH AN AXIS ALONG 30N134W TO 15N140W. TO ITS EAST...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A WESTWARD EXTENSION TO NEARLY 125W. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST HAS ACCENTUATED THE NORMAL CONFIGURATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND RELATIVE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...NW TO N WINDS TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY GENERALLY N OF 25N AND E OF 120W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS NOT ONLY IN STRENGTH BUT IN COVERAGE. STILL THOUGH...THE NLY FLOW HAS BEEN ACTIVE LONG ENOUGH SO THAT SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 6 TO POSSIBLY 8 FT IN ISOLATED SPOTS IN A MIXTURE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL COMING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NEWLY-FORMED N WIND WAVES. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST SUN AND MON...REINFORCING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE SAME POSITION FOR SOME TIME. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THIS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND...NW TO N WINDS SHOULD BECOME REINVIGORATED. IN FACT...THE NLY FLOW SHOULD REACH 2O TO 25 KT BEGINNING SAT EVENING AND LASTING UNTIL AT LEAST MON...WITH SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO OVER 8 FT OVER AN INCREASING AREA N OF 23N E OF 118W IN A MIXTURE OF N WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. $$ KIMBERLAIN