000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
.NONE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N89W 10N96W 8N110W 4N130W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 96W-99W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 100W...

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND S MEXICO/YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALMA AND A 
TROPICAL WAVE. THESE FEATURES CONSOLIDATED INTO A 1005 MB LOW 
PRES SYSTEM CENTERED JUST E OF BELIZE. WHILE DEVELOPMENT INTO A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY 
TO LAND...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS FROM HONDURAS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...A 1008 MB 
LOW IS ANALYZED ABOUT 200 NM S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS 
LOW ...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
GAP... PRODUCED AN ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. 
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF 
HOURS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP HAS 
WEAKENED (WAITING FOR A SCATTEROMETER PASS FOR CONFIRMATION). 
MOST NWP MODELS KEEP THIS LOW WEAK AND QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

W OF 100W...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF 
THE NW CONUS STATES WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N134W TO 22N140W AND A WELL DEFINED RIDGE 
PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS OVERALL 
PATTERN IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NEARLY THE 
ENTIRE ZONE W OF 110W. THIS DRY AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION/DEEP CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN ALONG THE 
ITCZ. A SMALLER SCALE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N107W 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM OF 
THE CENTER. AT THE SFC...A 1026 MB HIGH IS SITUATED WELL N OF 
THE AREA NEAR 46N134W. BESIDES FOR A NLY SURGE OFF THE BAJA 
COAST...DUE TO THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW 
PRES OVER THE SW U.S...WINDS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW THE 20 KT HIGH 
SEAS CRITERIA AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
CANGIALOSI