000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301601 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI MAY 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... .NONE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .NONE. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG FROM 11N88W TO 07N100W TO 07N115W TO 03N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 116W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM 13N92W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N135W TO 21N140W BRINGS IN SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE INTO E PAC NW OF AXIS. BROAD WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE SITS NEAR 25N109W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING REMAINDER E PAC N OF 08N W OF 100W. LACK OF WATER EVEN DRIES OUT ITCZ W OF 116W. NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL MEXICO FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE AND REACHES TO CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 10N103W. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WHICH SITS ABOVE REMNANTS OF TRPCL STORM ALMA CONTINUES PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCING FURTHER CONVECTION OVER ALONG COASTAL WATERS N OF 12N E OF 99W. RIDGE INTERACTION WITH TRPCL WAVE OVER NWRN CARIBBEAN ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. CONDITIONS ARE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS MAIN INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT ALBEIT NOT COMPLETELY SYNCHRONIZED. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRES 1021 MB AT 29N138W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 20N120W DRIFT NE SQUEEZING PRES GRADIENT AGAINST CALIFORNIA COAST AND INCREASING N-NW WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA. TRPCL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 15N AND REMNANTS OF TRPCL STORM ALMA STILL LINGER OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA MAINTAINING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER GULF OF MEXICO FORCING STRONG N WINDS ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS LIKELY TO DIMINISH BEFORE END OF FORECAST PERIOD AS SYSTEMS DRIFT W OF AREA. $$ WALLY BARNES