000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ALMA IS OVER LAND NEAR 13.4N 87.2W AT 0300 UTC 
AND IS MOVING N AT 8 KT WITH MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1000 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 WITH GUSTS TO 50 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
CONCENTRATED IN A BAND W OF THE CENTER WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE FROM 12N89W TO 14N91W. HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL AS THREAT 
IN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO TRACK NW FOR A 
COUPLE OF DAYS THEN POSSIBLY TURN W IF II HAS NOT ALREADY 
DISSIPATED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND ALMA 
AND IS NOW ANALYZED AS A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF NE 
NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 
08N90W TO 09N98W TO 03N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 09N83W TO 06N93W TO 06N113W AND WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 07N96W TO 13N106W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE N PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE 
PATTERN WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE TROUGH FROM 32N134W TO 24N136W. 
A WELL DEFINED UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 23N106W 
WITH A RIDGE SW TO A SHARP CREST AT 14N135W. TO THE SE OF THE 
RIDGE AN UPPER CUT OFF CYCLONE IS NEAR 11N99W AND MOVING SW AND 
WEAKENING WITH TIME. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 
14N72W WITH A RIDGE BUILDING W TO NEAR 15N83W. 

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FROM 05N 
TO 22N BETWEEN 80W AND 95W INCLUDING CONVECTION NEAR TROPICAL 
STORM ALMA AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 117W. THE 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS W. 
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY AND SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 148W.  

AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRES IS NEAR 31N144W AND RIDGES SE TO NEAR 
20N106W. NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ARE ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS ROTATING AROUND TS ALMA AND PUSHING THROUGH THE 
GAP OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 TO 25 KT AS FORECAST. THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO ABOUT 20 KT IN 42 HOURS.

$$
NELSON