000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ALMA IS CENTERED AT 12.4N 87.0W AT 2100 UTC AND 
IS MOVING N AT 8 KT WITH THE EYE CROSSING THE COAST. THE MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED IN BANDS WITHIN 300 NM OVER 
THE SE QUADRANT WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT. THE MAIN CONCERN 
IS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN AND 
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS. AN UPPER CYCLONE WELL TO THE W NEAR 
12N97W IS SHIFTING SW WITH TIME WHILE A TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE 
BUILDS W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SO THE REMNANT LOW IS 
LIKELY TO TRACK NW FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS THEN POSSIBLY TURN W IS 
HAS NOT ALREADY DISSIPATED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 8N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS ALONG 85W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT THE PAST 
48 HOURS. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED OVER THE PAC AT 08N85W AND OVER 
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. 

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 
07N93W TO 07N111W TO 00N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 09N83W TO 
05N93W 06N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE N PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE 
PATTERN ALONG 32N123W TO 24N135W. A WELL DEFINED UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 25N105W WITH A RIDGE SW TO A 
SHARP CREST AT 15N137W. TO THE SE OF THE RIDGE AN UPPER CUT OFF 
CYCLONE IS NEAR 12N99W AND MOVING SW AND WEAKENING WITH TIME. 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 15N75W WITH A RIDGE 
BUILDING W TO NEAR 15N83W. 

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FROM 05N 
TO 21N BETWEEN 75W AND 95W INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM ALMA AND 
ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 118W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS SPREADING N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER 
LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 119W AND 147W.  

AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRES IS NEAR 31N143W AND RIDGES SE TO NEAR 
15N113W. NW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS AND 
MAY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY THEN,

LOW LEVEL WINDS ROTATING AROUND TS ALMA AND PUSHING THROUGH 
THE GAP OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 TO 30 KT AS FORECAST. THESE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO ABOUT 20 KT IN 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON