000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270937 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE MAY 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NONE. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W TO 05N91W TO 06N109W TO 09N128W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-95W...AND SE OF THE ITCZ FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 82W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W-108W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N128W TO 25N131W TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 21N140W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE E AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NE OF THE REGION ON THU WITH THE MID-LATITUDE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL IN ITS WAKE. BEHIND THE TROUGH...HIGH PRES RIDGING IS BUILDING EWD INTO THE WRN SECTION OF THE REGION WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED WELL W OF THE AREA WITHIN ABOUT 280 N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING SEWD AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO THE FAR NRN PART OF AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS THEN BEING PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH AND CHANNELED ENE TOWARDS SRN CALIFORNIA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED TO THE SE OF TROUGH. IT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N102W SW THROUGH 19N110W TO 17N121W TO 14N126W TO 9N134W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS SWLY...THEN BECOMES NWLY BEHIND THE TROUGH W OF 130W. ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ELY...AND IS SPREADING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WWD TO NEAR 118W. TO THE E OF THE ANTICYCLONE...A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. THE FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND SE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE BECOMES DIFFLUENT AND IS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 80W-91W AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATED CONVECTION...ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER FLOW...IS EVIDENT N OF THE ITCZ TO ALONG THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. RECENT AND AND CURRENT PRES ANALYSES REVEAL THAT THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TIED IN TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES WHICH COVERS THE FAR ERN PACIFIC ROUGHLY FROM 04N TO 15N E OF 100W TO CENTRAL AMERICA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SPECIFIC LOW CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND LIKELY TRACK TO THE NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THEN MORE NLY IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH DIRECTION FROM W TO NW WITHIN THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA BETWEEN 85W-98W...AND SW 20 KT WINDS BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF THE ITCZ FROM 08N-14N E OF 95W. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING. BUOY 43301 NEAR 08N95W EARLIER LAST NIGHT REPORTED NW WINDS OF 25 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS APPARENT NEAR 11N91W BASED ON LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...BUT WILL AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN GETTING A BETTER HANDLE WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION AND FUTURE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW OR NEW ONE THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING RATHER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING ARE N OF 20N BETWEEN 120W-133W...WHILE SIMILAR BROKEN CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING SSW TO THE N OF 22N AND W OF 133W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 30N140W ...AND EXTENDS SEWD TO NEAR 20N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N AND 118W. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT...AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND 0600 UTC SHOWED NW WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG ...AND WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO LAST ABOUT ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BECOMES SITUATED NEAR 29N130W...AND LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES MENTIONED ABOVE DOES MATERIALIZE...THEN NLY WIND FLOW IN THE FORM OF 20 KT SHOULD IMPACT THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE