000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 12N88W TO 07N108W 
TO 10N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 79W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ALONG 32N116W TO NEAR 05N116W. A TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
NEAR 14N130W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A CREST NEAR 
19N122W BUT THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AS THE UPPER 
TROUGH TO ITS N DIGS FURTHER SE WITH TIME. A SECOND UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 21N98W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A SHARP
CREST NEAR 15N113W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED S INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N73W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS 
GENERALLY REINFORCING THE SOUTHERN END OF A CENTRAL ATLC 
TROPICAL UPPER TROUGH THAT ALREADY DOMINATES THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL PAC TO THE S OF THIS 
CARIBBEAN TROUGH IS DOMINATED BY WEAK RIDGING FROM THE 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N98W. 

UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FROM 15N 
TO 5N BETWEEN 78W AND 102W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAIN 
S OF 16N AS THE DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGHS SEEMS TO 
EVAPORATE THE MOISTURE. SOME OF THE MOISTURE SPREADS S OF THE EQ 
BETWEEN 83W AND 120W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE NW 
PORTION TO THE N OF LINE TO THE N OF 26N W OF 120W. ELSEWHERE 
THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY AND SUPPRESSES CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 149W.  

AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 32N142W TO 
16N120W. NORTHERLY SWELLS TO 9 FEET CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FROM 
05N TO 18N W OF 120W BUT ARE SUBSIDING AND SHOULD BE LESS THAN 8 
FEET BY EARLY WED.  

A BROAD AREA OF WESTERLY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS 
FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND 104W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
FORECASTING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP NEAR 10N90W 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO 
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THU AND THEREFORE LITTLE MOVEMENT 
IS EXPECTED INITIALLY FOR ANY SURFACE LOW THAT MAY FORM.
SOUTHERLY SWELL...8-9 FT...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE EQ 
BEGINNING TUE AND ARRIVING AT THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WED. 

$$
NELSON