000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 12N87W 
TO 09N97W TO 07N120W TO 11N126W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 96W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 03N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
WITH ASSOCIATED MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO 
THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N123W TO 22N140W. THE TROUGH IS 
HAVING LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE AREA IN THE FACE OF AN 
EXPANDING ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH CENTERS NEAR  
15N120W AND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N104W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 09N-20N E OF 135W. 

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE SRN PORTION OF THE 
AREA...OR S OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONES AND E OF 122W DUE TO THE 
EFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE RESULTING FROM THE POSITIONS 
OF THE ANTICYCLONES RELATIVE TO ONE ANOTHER. THIS MOISTURE IS 
PRIMARILY TIED TO CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ. THERE 
IS SOME INDICATION...AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT THE 
NRN FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE IS WORKING ITSELF NWD IN BETWEEN THE 
ANTICYCLONES WITH TIME. RECENT AND CURRENT PRES ANALYSES REVEAL 
THAT THIS MOISTURE IS RELATED TO AN AREA OF GENERAL LOW PRES 
WHICH COVERS THE FAR ERN PACIFIC FROM 03N-14N BETWEEN 84W-100W. 
GLOBAL NWP MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA MAY 
CONSOLIDATE FURTHER TO FORM A BROAD LOW CENTER DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK TO THE N TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. 
HAVE INTRODUCED A BROAD LOW PRES IN THE 48 HOUR HIGH SEAS NEAR 
09N89W. CURRENTLY...SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A FEW SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH 
DIRECTION FROM SW TO NW WITHIN THIS AREA. IN ADDITION SCATTERED 
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED IN THE 
AREA FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 96W.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING RATHER DRY AND 
STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILS OVER THE NW HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE 
AREA WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SE TO THE N OF 19N E OF 
132W...AND MOVING WSW TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS N OF 19N AND 
W OF 132W. OVER THE FAR NW PART UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OBSERVED N OF 25N 
W OF 120W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 29N140W 
...AND EXTENDS SE THROUGH 21N120W TO 15N108W. NORTH SWELLS WITH 
MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF 9 FEET CONTINUE FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 
124W-132W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 
FEET WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

QUIKSCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT...AND A COUPLE OF SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND 0600 UTC SHOWED NW WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG 
THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST S OF 24N TO 17N. EXPECT THESE 
WINDS TO LET UP SOME TUE AND WED...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ALONG NRN 
BAJA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BECOMES SITUATED 
NEAR 30N129W...AND LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES 
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

IF THE LOW MENTIONED IN SECOND PARAGRAPH ABOVE MATERIALIZES... 
THEN NLY WIND FLOW SHOULD IMPACT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING 
IN ABOUT 72 HOURS WITH WINDS THERE POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 20 KT.

$$
COBB