000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W 
TO 08N103W TO 7N112W TO 10N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 84W AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE HAS MOVED INLAND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
AND HAS AN ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N117W TO 27N117W TO 22N117W.  
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS
MORNING AS THE MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE 
RATHER PROGRESSIVE. BEHIND THE TROUGH A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS 
DAMPENING OUT ALONG 25N124W 28N124W 32N124W AS IT TRANSLATES 
EWD. S OF THE TROUGH...THE MAIN FEATURE IS AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N122W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING WWD TO 
14N132W...AND NW TO NEAR 20N140W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS SEEN OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N104W ALSO WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW TO 17N113W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N-20N E OF 135W...AND IS FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS. A MID/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING W 10-15 KT STRETCHES FROM 13N113W TO 07N113W.

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE SRN PORTION OF THE
AREA...OR S OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONES AND E OF 122W DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE RESULTING FROM THE POSITIONS
OF THE ANTICYCLONES RELATIVE TO ONE ANOTHER. THIS MOISTURE IS
PRIMARILY TIED TO CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION...AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT THE 
NRN FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE IS WORKING ITSELF NWD IN BETWEEN THE 
ANTICYCLONES WITH TIME. RECENT AND CURRENT PRES ANALYSES REVEAL
THAT THIS MOISTURE IS RELATED TO AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRES 
WHICH COVERS THE FAR ERN PACIFIC FROM 03N-14N BETWEEN 84W-100W.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE
TO FORM A SPECIFIC LOW CENTER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN 
EVENTUAL TRACK TO THE NE AND N. FOR THE TIME BEING...BOTH 
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WINDS 
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH DIRECTION FROM SW TO NW WITHIN THIS 
AREA. WILL AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH 
RESPECT TO POSSIBLE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN 
THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N93W...AND 
WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N89W TO 14N90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 30 NM OF A 
LINE FROM 10N86W TO 11N88W.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING RATHER DRY AND 
STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILS NW OF A LINE FROM 19N104W TO 02N127W
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SE TO THE N OF 19N E OF 132W...
AND MOVING WSW TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS N OF 19N AND W OF 
132W. OVER THE FAR NW PART UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N128W SW TO ABOUT 25N138W WITH THE 
ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LAGGING BEHIND IN A LINE FROM 32N132W TO 
25N240W...AND BEYOND THE AREA TO 22N147W. A DEVELOPING UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE TROUGH  AXIS THROUGH THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS SHARPENING THE TROUGH AS IT REACHES TO 32N126W 
TO 23N133W BY WED AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH THEN QUICKLY LIFTS NE OF 
THE AREA AND WEAKENS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 31N140W
...AND EXTENDS SE TO 26N135W TO 21N120W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 119W. NORTH SWELLS WITH MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF
9 FEET CONTINUE FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 124W-132W...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FEET WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

QUIKSCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT...AND A COUPLE OF SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND 0600 UTC SHOWED NW WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG 
THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST S OF 24N TO 17N. EXPECT THESE 
WINDS TO LET UP SOME TUE AND WED...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ALONG NRN 
BAJA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BECOMES SITUATED 
NEAR 30N129W...AND LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES 
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

IF THE LOW MENTIONED IN SECOND PARAGRAPH ABOVE MATERIALIZES... 
THEN NLY WIND FLOW SHOULD IMPACT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING 
IN ABOUT 72 HOURS WITH WINDS THERE POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 20 KT.

$$
AGUIRRE