000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251614
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER LAND N OF 13N ALONG 89W/90W AND 
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY BROAD 
AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING...WITH WESTERLY WINDS NOTED TO THE 
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WAVE. THESE WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO 
MAKE THE WAVE DIFFICULT TO DETECT AS A DISTINCT FEATURE AT THIS 
TIME. MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
WAVE IS NOW WELL WEST OF THE WAVE...GENERALLY WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF THE WAVE 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...09N84W TO 
06N97W TO 09N122W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 102W AND 109W...AND FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 03N E OF 82W TO COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. 

...DISCUSSION...
INFLUENCE OF LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN UNITED 
STATES IS BEGINNING TO WANE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AS A LARGE 
ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N102W BUILDS WWD AND 
CONNECTS WITH A TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N124W. AREA OF 
INFLUENCE OF TROUGH CONFINED TO N OF 23N W OF 110W. A VAST AREA 
OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N-13N BETWEEN 90W AND 140W.  

EASTERLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WAS NOTED S OF THE ANTICYCLONE
OVER MEXICO AND ALONG THE ITCZ E OF ABOUT 110W TO 85W AND
WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE IN ITCZ. MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS 
ARE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND THE ENTIRE AREA EAST OF 
97W. WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W. 

NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FEET CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PART OF 
THE AREA NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 105W. THESE SWELLS ORIGINATED 
FROM STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS A FEW DAYS AGO OFF THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST AND SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 FEET WITHIN 48 HOURS OR 
SO. 

$$
COBB