000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 88W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE 
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING...WITH 
WESTERLY WINDS NOTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS 
DIFFICULT TO DETECT AS A DISTINCT FEATURE AT THIS TIME. STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FLARING MAINLY OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN 
MEXICO...APPROXIMATELY 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE POSITION.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...08N83W TO 
06N97W TO 10N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 
AXIS FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W...AND FROM 02N TO 04N 
BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 17N FROM AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WESTWARD TO 
ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
17N105W. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH PERSISTS 
ALONG THE LENGTH OF MEXICO...BETWEEN HIGH PRES SYSTEMS OVER THE 
WESTERN ATLC AND EASTERN PACIFIC. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND 
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG W 
TO NW FLOW ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM LOS CABOS TO ACAPULCO 
SOUTH OF THE BROAD TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW SW CROSS 
EQUATORIAL FLOW CONVERGING WITH THIS W TO NW FLOW IGNITING THE 
CONVECTION AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ALTHOUGH STRONG ELY FLOW ALOFT 
TO THE S OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SHEARING THIS CONVECTION. N OF 
15N...DEEP LAYER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY. LOOKING AHEAD 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE VERY 
SLOW CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE BROAD LOW GENERALLY OVER 
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES REMAIN 
BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING EXACT INTENSITY OR LOCATION. SOME 
INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND WINDS/SEAS IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER S OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS.

W OF 110W...BROAD DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC ROTATION THAT WAS OVER THE 
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED NW INTO NRN 
CALIFORNIA...JUST AS ANOTHER BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHES EWD OVER 
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THESE FEATURES ARE SQUEEZING AN UPPER 
RIDGE POSITIONED ALONG ROUGHLY 135W TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. NET EFFECT S OF 32N WILL BE TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE TO 
THE NORTH THUS ALLOWING STRONG WINDS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST 
INTO THE WATERS W OF BAJA TO DIMINISH. ASSOCIATED SWELL 
CONTINUES TO DECAY AS SWELL. UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM 15N115W TO 
07N140W IS PROVIDING SOME UPPER SUPPORT TO CONVECTION OVER THE 
ITCZ...LACK OF ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ANYWHERE W OF 115W 
WILL KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN