000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242213
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 03N ALONG 86W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE 
WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO TRACK IN THE FACE OF A LARGE SWATH OF 
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. IN FACT...THE WAVE MAY HAVE TO BE 
CONFINED TO NORTH OF 10N THROUGH EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS IN THE 
NEXT SURFACE ANALYSIS WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SCATTEROMETER 
DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW BETTER CYCLONIC TURNING 
INDICATIVE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION IS FOCUSED WEST OF THE 
WAVE AXIS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ...SEE NEXT 
PARAGRAPH.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...08N81W TO 
10N119W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 
92W...WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 102W. 

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 17N FROM AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO ANOTHER UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 17N105W. 
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE 
LENGTH OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...BETWEEN HIGH 
PRES SYSTEMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND EASTERN PACIFIC. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW ASSOCIATED 
FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW FLOW ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 
MANZANILLO TO ACAPULCO SOUTH OF BROAD TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOW SW CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW CONVERGING WITH THIS FLOW TO 
PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO IGNITE THE CONVECTION AS 
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALTHOUGH STRONG ELY FLOW ALOFT TO THE S OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE IS SHEARING THIS CONVECTION. N OF 15N...DEEP LAYER 
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY. LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A 
BROAD LOW GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...ALTHOUGH 
LARGE DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING EXACT 
INTENSITY OR LOCATION. SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND 
WINDS/SEAS IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER S OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

W OF 110W...BROAD DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC ROTATION THAT WAS OVER THE 
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED NW INTO NRN 
CALIFORNIA...JUST AS ANOTHER BROAD UPPER CYCLONE PUSHES EWD OVER 
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THESE FEATURES ARE SQUEEZING AN UPPER 
RIDGE POSITIONED ALONG ROUGHLY 135W TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. NET EFFECT S OF 32N WILL BE TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE TO 
THE NORTH THUS ALLOWING STRONG WINDS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST 
INTO THE WATERS W OF BAJA TO DIMINISH. ASSOCIATED SWELL 
CONTINUES TO DECAY AS SWELL. UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM 15N115W TO 
07N140W IS PROVIDING SOME UPPER SUPPORT TO CONVECTION OVER THE 
ITCZ...LACK OF ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ANYWHERE W OF 115W 
WILL KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN