000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 80W/81W MOVING W AT 10 
KT.  NO SIGNS OF CYCLONIC TURNING ON IR IMAGES GIVE LITTLE CLUES 
ABOUT ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM...BUT INFLUX OF PLENTY OF AVAILABLE 
TRPCL MOISTURE...RIDGE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG WAVE INTERSECTING 
ITCZ.  GFS DOES INSINUATE SOME DEVELOPMENT...BUT UNCERTAINTY 
ABOUNDS ON ITS FUTURE. 
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 07N88W TO 12N106W TO 11N112W TO 12N118W TO 
04N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
02N-08N BETWEEN 85W-102W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 112W-136W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER SRN NEVADA HAS BROAD TROUGH 
MAINTAINING DRY FLOW OVER BASIN N OF 20N FROM 92W-135W.  TROUGH 
SPLITS E PAC RIDGING INTO TWO SEPARATE ANTICYCLONES WITH THE 
WESTERNMOST GYRE NEAR 05N150W AND EASTERNMOST ONE OVER WRN 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N82W.  MODERATE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ENHANCING 
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR 10N117W BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CYCLONIC TURNING 
NOR ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN DETECTED.  SECOND AREA OF DIFFLUENT 
AIR MASS SEEN BETWEEN BROAD TROUGH AND CARIBBEAN RIDGE NEAR 
06N99W WITH SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ALSO LACKING 
ORGANIZATION.  

OTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOTED ALONG ITCZ E OF 100W AS 
CARIBBEAN RIDGE DRAWS WARM TRPCL MOISTURE INTO E PAC.  ONLY 
SCATTERED TSTMS NOTED BUT WITH TRPCL WAVE ENTERING BASIN THAT 
RIDGE ALOFT MIGHT HELP ITS DEVELOPMENT. 

AT THE SURFACE...
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER WELL TOO FAR N OF AREA TO SUPPORT NELY 
TRADES HAS NEVERTHELESS EXTENDED THE FETCH OF STRONG NLY WINDS 
ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST WITH GALE FORCE JUST N OF 30N AND OCNL 
GUSTS TO GALES S OF 30N.  LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL..RANGING FROM 
9 TO 12 SECONDS...OBSERVED AS HIGH AS 19 FT ENCROACHED INTO E 
PAC N OF 20N AND EVENTUALLY REACH 12N.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALSO 
SPILLING INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES