000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA FROM 07N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. IT IS UNSURE IF THIS PRECIPITATION REALLY 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

09N83W 07N99W 10N119W 05N135W 05N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W
AND 85W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W AND 87W...FROM 06N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W...
FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 06N TO 12N
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 10N EAST OF 100W. 
WEAK AND DISSIPATING ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 105W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WEST OF
THE AREA NEAR 26N148W IS SENDING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW NORTH
OF 16N WEST OF 136W. 

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A TEXAS CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO...
TO 23N103W TO 16N110W AND 11N116W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO NORTH OF 28N. MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN SIDE 
OF THIS TROUGH AND TO THE EAST OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 120W.

DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN NORTH OF 06N EAST OF 100W...WELL INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW HAS BEEN HELPING TO ENHANCE THE 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ITCZ EAST OF 100W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N116W 24N129W BEYOND 30N135W.
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE 
INTO NORTHERN BAJA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SURFACE WINDS 
SPEEDS REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 25 TO 30 KT ALONG 30N. THIS WILL 
DRIVE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS POSSIBLY REACHING 18 TO 20 FT... 
WITH THE PERIOD INCREASING TO ABOUT 11 SECONDS INTO THE AREA
BY FRIDAY.  

$$
MT