000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212214
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
EXTEND FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 
79W.

...ITCZ...

07N77W 06N93W 09N123W 06N140W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W...AND FROM
09N TO 10N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 07N TO 11N AND THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 82W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 
96W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W...AND FROM 06N TO 12N
BETWEEN 105W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WEST OF
THE AREA NEAR 25N148W IS SENDING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW NORTH OF 17N 
WEST OF 136W. 

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MEXICO/TEXAS
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N99W TO 17N110W AND 11N116W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO ARIZONA/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY 
AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS 
TROUGH AND TO THE EAST OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 120W.

DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN NORTH OF 7N EAST OF 100W...WELL INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW HAS BEEN HELPING TO ENHANCE THE 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ITCZ EAST OF 100W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 14N126W BEYOND 30N137W. A SERIES OF 
COLD FRONTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO 
NORTHERN BAJA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SURFACE WINDS
SPEEDS REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 25 TO 30 KT ALONG 30N. THIS WILL 
DRIVE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS POSSIBLY REACHING 18 TO 20 FT...
WITH THE PERIOD INCREASING TO ABOUT 11 SECONDS INTO THE AREA
BY FRIDAY.  

$$
MT