000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...09N83W TO 07N90W TO 11N96W TO 10N106W TO 
12N113W TO 11N122W TO 07N129W TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 82W-98W.  
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 115W-131W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 24N143W DRIFTING W 
HAS WEAKENING 75 KT JET CORE BRINGING IN TRPCL MOISTURE TO THE 
NW CORNER N OF 18N W OF 136W IN AN OTHERWISE VERY DRY AREA THAT 
COVER ALL OF BASIN N OF 17N W OF 105W. 

WEAK RIDGE MAINTAIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM 115W-130W.  
RIDGE CENTER AT 10N123W PRODUCES GOOD DIFFLUENCE JUST ABOVE 
SURFACE TROUGH PRESENTLY ALONG 123W ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION.
NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION NOTED ON SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ALOFT 
ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF TROUGH.  GLOBAL 
MODELS DEVELOP LOW PRES ALONG TROUGH WITHIN 12 HRS...BUT 
DISSIPATE IT WITHIN 48 HRS AFTER ANTICYCLONE ALOFT BREAK AWAY 
FROM TROUGH.

SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 108W FROM 08N-15N ALSO ENHANCED BY 
SHEAR ZONE ALOFT TRAPPED BETWEEN ANTICYCLONE MENTIONED ABOVE AND 
LARGE CARIBBEAN RIDGE EXTENSION.  TROUGH PRODUCING DEEP 
CONVECTION RIGHT UNDER AREA OF MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE BUT HAS FAILED 
TO DEVELOP GOOD OUTFLOW.  HEALTHY CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO AT 27N101W HAS TROUGH EXTEND TO 12N106W.     

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
STRONG NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT JUST N OF AREA WILL 
AFFECT EASTERNMOST WATERS WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE LONG 
PERIOD SWELL REACHING AS HIGH AS 20 FT.  GALE FORCE WINDS 
EXPECTED JUST N OF NE CORNER OF BASIN WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE 
GUSTS INSIDE E PAC BASIN. 

$$
WALLY BARNES