000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202147 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE MAY 20 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NONE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG...11N86W TO 10N90W TO 14N99W TO 14N105W TO 10N109W TO 11N120W TO 07N131W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 83W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF 11N108W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 115W-130W. ...DISCUSSION... STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 23N141W DRIFTING SW HAS WEAK 85 KT JET CORE BRINGING IN TRPCL MOISTURE TO THE NW CORNER OF E PAC IN OTHERWISE VERY DRY AREA N OF 16N W OF 105W. WEAK RIDGE MAINTAIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM 115W-130W. RIDGE CENTER AT 11N120W PRODUCES GOOD DIFFLUENCE JUST ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH PRESENTLY ALONG 123W ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION. NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION NOTED ON SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRES ALONG TROUGH WITHIN 12 HRS...BUT DISSIPATE IT WITHIN 48 HRS AFTER ANTICYCLONE ALOFT BREAK AWAY FROM TROUGH. SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 107W/108W FROM 07N-15N ALSO ENHANCED BY SHEAR ZONE ALOFT TRAPPED BETWEEN ANTICYCLONE MENTIONED ABOVE AND LARGE CARIBBEAN RIDGE EXTENSION. TROUGH PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION RIGHT UNDER AREA OF MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE BUT HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP A GOOD OUTFLOW. HEALTHY CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AT 26N103W HAS TROUGH EXTEND TO 12N107W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... COLD FRONT ENTER BASIN FROM 32N128W TO 30N140W. STRONG NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL AFFECT EASTERNMOST WATERS WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL REACHING AS HIGH AS 20 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED JUST N OF THE NE CORNER OF BASIN WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUSTS INSIDE E PAC BASIN. $$ WALLY BARNES