000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG LINE 15N121W TO 07N124W. THE TROUGH 
IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED EAST 
OF THE AXIS IN AN AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF 08N119W. THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION SHOWS GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MAY PERSIST 
THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS A LOW NEAR THE 
CONVECTION AND MAINTAINS THE LOW IDENTITY THROUGH AT LEAST 48 
HOURS AND DRIFTS THE LOW EAST WITH NO DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG LINE...04N77W TO 11N105W TO 10N125W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 15.5N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 11N110W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
POINT 08N119W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
75 NM OF THE POINT 10N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

TWO DEEP LAYER LOWS ARE OVER THE AREA. ONE IS CENTERED OVER 
MEXICO NEAR 24N104W. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS NORTH AND EAST OF 
A LINE 32N122W TO 13N120W TO 15N105W TO BEYOND 25N97W.  OVER THE 
OCEAN THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OVER 
MEXICO SOME MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BUT 
LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST BUT A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH 
AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED 25N139.5W. THE 
SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WEST. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS NORTH AND WEST 
OF A LINE 32N135W TO 16N135W TO 11.5N140W. A FEW UPPER CLOUDS 
ARE NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND BROKEN TO 
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 
OTHERWISE LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. 

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE BROAD 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL