000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 80W FROM 03N INTO PANAMA IS 
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W AND 
82W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 05N77W TO 09N104W TO 07N116W TO 08N126W TO 
04N133W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 03N86W TO 
08N95W LINE...FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W...FROM 07N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
04N136W TO 04N140W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED AT 26N138W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY NW. CYCLONIC FLOW IS 
LOCATED N OF ABOUT 18N W OF 133W TO NEAR 145W. WIND SPEEDS 
SURROUNDING THE CIRCULATION ARE IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. 
FURTHER EAST A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW 
UNITED STATES CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W 
AND INCLUDES MOST OF MEXICO. A JET AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 25N125W TO 21N115W THROUGH THE 
MEXICAN COAST AT 22N. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS ALONG THE JET 
AXIS ARE 70 TO 75 KT. SOUTH OF 18N MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS 
ALOFT ARE LOCATED W OF 120W AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND 
SLIGHTLY LOWER BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY 
SWELLS TO 9 FEET ARE LOCATED S OF A LINE FROM 00N135W TO 08N120W 
TO 05N100W TO 00N95W. THE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

E OF 100W...
OVER THE E PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE 
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE.  

$$
CAB