000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

05N78W 07N89W 10N99W 09N107W 10N113W 09N119W 08N125W 05N135W
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...AND WITHIN A 
30 TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 9N120W...8N123W...AND 7N128W...AND WITHIN 
A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N98W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 250 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 6N77W 10N101W...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 125 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 10N101W 10N112W 09N120W 07N131W 04N135W 05N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A NORTHERN MEXICO 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N107W TO 19N110W IN THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ABOUT 360 NM WEST OF THE MEXICO COAST. 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH AND EAST OF 
20N105W 20N115W 25N123W BEYOND 32N128W. 

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N137W TO 
A 24N137W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 18N138W BEYOND 16N142W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH 
OF 20N EAST OF 140W. SOME OF THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE 24N137W
16N142W TROUGH IS BEING PUSHED TO THE NORTH INTO THE AREA NORTH 
OF 20N EAST OF 140W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
NEAR 15N93W NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BEYOND
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 15 NM 
RADIUS OF 8N77W...POSSIBLY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N101W 08N105W 05N106W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ ARE NEAR THE TROUGH.

A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N120W 06N124W. 
ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

$$
MT